Retail sales volumes have now fallen for three consecutive quarters – the first time this has occurred in 15 years.

Sales fell 0.5% in the June quarter, after falling 0.8% in the March quarter and 0.4% in the December quarter, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

That points to a clear slowdown in the economy. But it’s unclear if a recession is coming, as the picture is mixed.

On the one hand, the Reserve Bank has forecast that the economy will grow 0.9% this year and 1.6% next year, which suggests we might avoid a recession. On the other hand, a recession occurs when the economy contracts in two consecutive quarters rather than over an entire year, so a recession and year-on-year growth could go hand in hand.

Regardless, if you’re concerned about your cashflow or financial position, speak to your accountant about ways to protect your business.